Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Abacus: Little Change Nationally; Nanos: Three Leaders in Three Days

Two polls this morning: the daily Nanos, and a seemingly bi-weekly Abacus. There is really little in the way of notable changes, though both polls have the Conservatives up by 3% over the Liberals in ON, with the NDP still trailing.

The new projection moved towards the Tories on their ON strength:

CON - 132, +3 (30.9%, -0.2%)
NDP - 115, -1 (31.2%, -0.1%)
LIB - 90, -2 (28.7%, -0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%, +0.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%, +0.1%)

A bit of a freak occurrence: the Tories have the worst popular vote variation, but the best seat variation. Ontario is key...

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