Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Nanos: Parties within 1 Point; Léger: NDP down in Québec; Mainstreet: Tories Lead in ON

A bunch of polls out this morning. The usual Nanos shows the usual results: not much change. The Léger numbers are all very much in line with the polling average, though the NDP is down to 38% in Québec, while the Bloc is up to 20%. That's the area where the Bloc would start winning seats, so that "0" in the left-hand column might finally change soon! Finally, Mainstreet has an ON-only poll putting the Tories ahead by 4 over the Liberals and 16 over the NDP. These numbers are a little higher for the Tories and lower for the Liberals and NDP than usual, but they are not out-of-whack.

Important note: The new projection does NOT yet include the EKOS poll, whose details have yet to come out publicly. That poll will give a big bump to the Tories: they are at 35.4% nationally against just 26.3% for the Liberals and 24.5% for the NDP. (These numbers might suggest that EKOS might have applied a likely voter screen, but they also have the Greens at 7.7%, which suggests the other way.)

The new projection gives:

CON - 134 (31.6%)
NDP - 111, -1 (29.2%, -0.2%)
LIB - 92, +1 (29.6%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.7%, -0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.9%, +0.2%)

The unadjusted averages are LIB 30.4, NDP 30.1, CON 30.0, GRN 4.9, BQ 3.9.

1 comment:

buterflyer said...

isn't 138 + 4 = 142?

I love your blog!