After yesterday's EKOS bombshell, Canadian political junkies are on high alert, looking for any further evidence of movement of voting intention toward Conservatives. Today's polls do not show such a change: Forum has the Tories down by 2 compared to last Friday, while Nanos has them down by 2.4 compared to three days ago.
One place where Forum corroborated EKOS is a low NDP number in Québec: EKOS had them at 33% there, Forum 34%. However, Nanos still has the NDP at 41% in QC.
As for the Liberals, they have had a good polling week apart from EKOS: the most recent poll of all other pollsters that have reported this week (Ipsos, Forum, Léger, Nanos) puts the Liberals first (in a tie in two cases).
All this helps the Liberals and the Bloc at the expense of the Tories and the NDP in today's updated projection:
CON - 137, -1 (32.5%, -0.2%)
NDP - 107, -2 (28.0%, -0.2%)
LIB - 92, +2 (29.5%, +0.5%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%, -0.2%)
BQ - 1, +1 (4.0%)
Unadjusted for turnout, it's:
CON - 128 (30.9%)
NDP - 111 (28.8%)
LIB - 96 (30.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)
Either this evening or over the weekend, I will update the projection model based on regional breakdowns and riding polls. Stay tuned for a big post reviewing all of those since the start of the campaign!
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