Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Forum: Tories up, NDP Down

This week's Forum poll shows some movement: while the previous two Forum surveys had the NDP at 36%, which was higher than in all contemporaneous surveys, today's release falls in line with other polls, putting the NDP at 30%. Meanwhile, the 32% for the Tories is their best result of the entire campaign.

The reduced weight on last week's Forum poll hurts the NDP in the new projection, and the Tory uptick on ON hurts the Liberals:

CON - 131, +4 (31.5%, +0.6%)
NDP - 113, -2 (30.3%, -0.6%)
LIB - 93, -2 (28.8%, -0.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%, +0.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.5%)

The unadjusted popular vote is now NDP 31.1%, CON 29.9%, LIB 29.6%.

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