Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Innovative Double Poll: Small Conservative Lead

Innovative Research did something, well, innovative: it conducted parallel phone and online polls. The results come somewhere between the EKOS and the other polls: Innovative places the Tories in the lead, but not by nearly as much as EKOS.

The Liberals were a tad lower than their usual 31% in the other non-EKOS polls; however, they can rejoice that both Innovative polls still give them a small lead in Ontario. The Greens were high in both polls: 7% in the phone one and 8% in the online one.

The updated projection shows:

CON - 138, +1 (32.7%, +0.2%)
NDP - 107 (27.9%, -0.1%)
LIB - 91, -1 (29.1%, -0.4%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%, +0.6%)
BQ - 1 (3.9%, -0.1%)

A methodological note: I am treating these polls as if they were by different pollsters since they used different methodologies and substantially overlapped. (Normally, when a pollsters has multiple polls, I reduce the weight of the older ones, in addition to the time depreciation.)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 128 (31.0%)
NDP - 110 (28.6%)
LIB - 97 (29.9%)
BQ - 2 (3.8%)
GRN - 1 (5.8%)

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