Projection Update: EKOS 10/15-17, Mainstreet 10/15-17

The following polls have been added to the model:
EKOS' 10/15-17 national poll (current weight among national polls: 18%)
Mainstreet's 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 27%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's EKOS poll is good news for the Tories. Relative to the last EKOS poll 3 days ago, they reduce the gap in Atlantic Canada and ON, and get a moderate lead in BC. The Liberals get good news in QC, while the NDP momentum appears to have stopped across the board. The Greens gain nationally, but, unfortunately for them, not in BC.

The Mainstreet tracker shows a Tory uptick and a Green downtick from yesterday, with other parties relatively stable.

Unsurprisingly, overall, the Tories gain in the projection, retaking a marginal lead. Has their two-week-long bleeding finally stopped? The Liberals and Bloc are down marginally.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
CON - 131.9 (33.1%)
LIB - 130.2 (31.3%)
NDP - 39.8 (19.1%)
BQ - 33.4 (6.7%)
GRN - 1.5 (6.6%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs retake Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge and Burlington from LIBs.
- In SK, CONs regain Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs retake Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge from the NDP.

Projection Update: DART 10/16, Nanos 10/15-17, Léger 10/13-15 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
DART's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)
Nanos' 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
Léger's 10/13-15 QC poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not yet incorporated the Léger fine sub-QC breakdown into the projection. I'm also behind on adding the following information released earlier in the week: Nanos QC and ON breakdowns, Mainstreet Jonquière poll, Léger GTA poll and Forum QC breakdown. I hope to have an update this evening where I catch up on all this...

Today's DART poll shows little change from last week. It helps the Tories in the projection not because it shows a 4-point Tory national lead (the model accounts for DART's Tory lean), but because:
- the Tories are flat from last week, while other pollsters show them down, and
- the Tories swapped votes in AB for votes in ON.
This poll basically offsets the Forum poll conducted on the same day, released yesterday afternoon: taken together, those two polls have essentially no impact on the projection.

The Nanos tracker is mostly flat, except for a small Tory drop, consistent with other pollsters. Adding the Léger QC poll also had little impact, as its results are very similar to the QC polling average.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
LIB - 131.3 (31.1%)
CON - 129.1 (32.5%)
NDP - 40.0 (19.0%)
BQ - 34.7 (6.8%)
GRN - 1.8 (7.4%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get La Prairie and Châteauguay--Lacolle back from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs retake Newmarket--Aurora, Whitby, King--Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Peterborough--Kawartha and Cambridge from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Davenport from LIBs.

Projection Update: Forum 10/16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Forum's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 31%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Forum poll is the first one of the campaign with the Tories below 30% both nationally and in a public ON breakdown. They are also well behind the leading Liberals in the Atlantic and the 3rd place NDP in QC. It's just one poll, but the trend has been extremely negative for the Conservatives - consistently losing 1 point every 4 days since the start of October - and this merely shows that trend continuing.

The NDP is now ahead of the Liberals in the polling average in both BC and AB, in addition to MB/SK. The Liberals, on the other hand, are back up to 70 seats in the ON projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
LIB - 134.0 (31.4%)
CON - 124.6 (32.3%)
NDP - 41.1 (19.6%)
BQ - 35.7 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.5 (6.6%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get King--Vaughan, Whitby and Newmarket--Aurora back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Davenport back from the NDP.
- In AB, the NDP retakes Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP takes Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge from CONs.

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/14-16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/14-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 47%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Mainstreet update has the Liberals up a point from yesterday, with the Greens still dropping. The Bloc is also slightly lower - the Liberals must hope that this continues.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 15)
LIB - 131.3 (31.3%)
CON - 127.8 (32.7%)
NDP - 39.6 (18.8%)
BQ - 36.6 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.6 (6.9%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: this will be updated later, along with the provincial breakdown in the left column.
- In ON, LIBs get Richmond Hill back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP retakes Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from CONs.

Projection Update: Nanos 10/13-16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/13-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Nanos update has all parties' vote shares changing by 0.2% or less, except the Liberals, who drop by a still small 0.4%. Accordingly, the projection shows marginal change. The NDP drops slightly because the model was expecting a bigger NDP increase in the Nanos tracker given yesterday's Mainstreet poll (whose recency is between yesterday's and today's Nanos polls due to Nanos skipping Thanksgiving).

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14.5)
CON - 130.4 (33.0%)
LIB - 129.8 (31.0%)
NDP - 38.4 (18.4%)
BQ - 36.6 (7.0%)
GRN - 1.7 (7.4%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: none.

Projection Update: EKOS 10/11-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
EKOS' 10/11-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 14%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

A new EKOS poll is out, and like in other polls, there is a large NDP increase and also a Bloc increase from last week. However, EKOS shows the Tories and Liberals also marginally up. Of course, there must be a loser, and it's the Greens - this poll is a total disaster for them.

Regionally, the Liberals are showing strength in ON with a big lead, while the NDP is doing well in BC, placing a very strong second. What this means is that even though the Tories, Liberals and NDP all gain the vote share projection, the Tories are down again in terms of seats, falling below 130 for the first time.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14)
LIB - 130.1 (31.1%)
CON - 128.9 (32.8%)
NDP - 39.3 (18.6%)
BQ - 36.9 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.6 (7.2%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown and Egmont back from CONs.
- In QC, CONs retake Beauce from the PPC.
- In QC, CONs get Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Peterborough--Kawartha back from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Davenport from LIBs.
- In SK, CONs retake Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, the NDP gets South Okanagan--West Kootenay back from CONs.

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/13-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/13-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 43%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet poll shows a further NDP increase, with a Green drop and a smaller Tory decrease. The NDP is now approaching the 40-seat mark in the projection, and, in terms of the popular vote, in close range of the second-place Liberals in both AB and, more importantly, BC (as remarked earlier, the NDP is already ahead of the Liberals in MB/SK).

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14)
CON - 130.5 (32.6%)
LIB - 129.4 (31.0%)
NDP - 38.3 (18.4%)
BQ - 36.9 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.9 (7.7%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from CONs.
- In QC, the NDP retakes Outremont from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Toronto--Danforth from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Cambridge back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River back from CONs.
- In AB, the NDP regains Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP retakes Nanaimo--Ladysmith from GRNs.

Projection Update: Nanos 10/12-15 and Mainstreet 10/9 Trois-Rivières Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/12-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 20%)
Mainstreet's 10/9 Trois-Rivières poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 16: Corrected minor spreadsheet error.

This Nanos update has all parties' vote shares changing by 0.5% or less, so of course the projection changes little. This is the first Tory increase in the projection after six straight drops, and it is the fifth in a row with the Liberals stubbornly flat, between 129 and 130 seats.

The Mainstreet Trois-Rivières poll causes a riding adjustment that shifts a net 0.3 seats from the Bloc to the Tories.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13.5)
CON - 132.4 132.9 (32.9 33.0%)
LIB - 129.7 129.4 (31.0%)
BQ - 36.4 36.5 (7.0%)
NDP - 36.3 36.1 (17.7 17.6%)
GRN - 2.1 (8.1 8.2%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Trois-Rivières and Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from the BQ.
- In QC, LIBs get Outremont back from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, GRNs retake Nanaimo--Ladysmith from the NDP.

Projection Update: Angus Reid 10/12-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 10/12-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 39%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not updated the provincial seat distribution table on the left due to lack of time.

Today's Angus Reid poll is quite similar to last week's, so the projection shifts little. The Tories are very low in AB and the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, but that's probably just due to the small sample sizes (fewer than 150) in those areas. The Bloc widens its still insignificant lead in QC, while the Liberals erase the Angus Reid Tory lead in ON. The Conservatives have fallen back in BC, within range of both the NDP and Liberals, while the Greens' single-digit result in BC has them fall to 2.0 seats in the projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13.5)
CON - 131.2 (32.9%)
LIB - 129.6 (30.9%)
BQ - 37.2 (7.0%)
NDP - 36.9 (17.8%)
GRN - 2.0 (8.2%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: No time to update - sorry!
- In PE, CONs regain Egmont and Charlottetown from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Toronto--Danforth back from the NDP.
- In AB, the NDP gains Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP takes Nanaimo--Ladysmith from GRNs.

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/12-14 and Forum 10/11 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/12-14 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 51%)
Forum's 10/11 QC poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not yet reviewed QC sub-regional adjustments based on the Forum poll's breakdown. The results of the review will either be provided in an update to this post or rolled into a future update.

Today's Mainstreet tracker shows a Conservative drop, along with small increases for the NDP and Bloc again. The projection shifts accordingly.

The Forum QC poll shows the Liberals and Bloc both up from the QC subsample of the Forum poll conducted immediately after the English debate, at the expense of the other parties. Are some Quebecers realizing that it's a two-way race in most of the province, and picking a camp accordingly?

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13)
CON - 132.2 (32.9%)
LIB - 129.4 (30.9%)
BQ - 37.0 (7.0%)
NDP - 35.7 (17.8%)
GRN - 2.4 (8.2%)

IND - 0.7
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ gains Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ gains La Prairie and Argenteuil--La Petite Nation from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP regains Toronto--Danforth from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Mississauga--Lakeshore, Kitchener South--Hespeler, Vaughan--Woodbridge and Burlington back from CONs.