The following poll has been added to the model:
Innovative's 9/20-25 national poll (current weight among national polls: 17%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
This IRG poll is much like the previous Mainstreet poll: good Liberal results (relative to Tories) by a pollster with usually good Liberal results. However, unlike the Mainstreet poll, it did move the needle slightly because IRG hadn't come out with a poll for a while; thus, this increases the weight on IRG. And unlike the Mainstreet poll, this one is just as good for the Liberals as IRG's summer polls - and in fact better than its early September one.
The NDP is buoyed by a good BC number (and a poor one for the Tories), which erases its losses from earlier today. The Greens, however, are down again, seemingly resuming a two-month trend that paused only for the NDP's struggles in late August and the "blackface" incident.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 23)
LIB - 150.2 (33.7%)
CON - 147.5 (36.4%)
BQ - 18.4 (5.1%)
NDP - 17.7 (12.5%)