Mainstreet's 9/21-23 national poll (national numbers only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Correction 9/24: Forgot to enter a weight for Mainstreet's BQ number on the spreadsheet.
This Mainstreet poll basically repeats the results from yesterday, with a mild uptick for the Liberals (and downtick for the Greens). The projection moves marginally against the Liberals, as a result of the model applying more aggressive negative weights on old Liberal-favouring Mainstreet polls. But the basic story is: no change.
With this update, 97% of the national weight is on post-"blackface" data.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 22)
CON - 151.4 (36.6%)