The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/19-21 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
The Tory lead shrinks a bit in this Nanos poll. This almost perfectly offsets the replacement of older Nanos samples (remember that this is a rolling poll) with those that are one day more recent. The projection is almost exactly unchanged.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 20)
CON - 154.4 (37.2%)
LIB - 148.8 (33.9%)