Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/16-18

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 21%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Nanos shows the Tories up 3.4% over the past 3 days, with all other major parties down, especially the NDP.

Note that Nanos calls from 6:30pm to 9:30pm local. Therefore, in Eastern Canada, most of yesterday's respondents probably weren't aware of the Trudeau blackface/brownface news, while in Western Canada, many probably were.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 17)
LIB - 158.7 (35.1%)
CON - 148.7 (37.1%)
NDP - 14.3 (11.5%)
BQ - 12.3 (4.6%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.5%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

I will provide the seats changing hands with the Mainstreet update this afternoon.

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