Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/25-27 and ON Regional Polls

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/25-27 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
Mainstreet's 9/23-26 GTA breakdown
Forum's 9/25-26 Toronto poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The big news from the Nanos poll is a notable jump in Green support, at the expense of the Liberals. One has to wonder if this is just a transitory effect of the global climate "strike." Nevertheless, ironically, this shift is helping the Tories in the projection for now (as well as the Tories' own marginal increase).

Despite their near-2% drop in support, the Liberals don't lose too much ground in the projection because:
- Mechanically, the date moving one day ahead reduces the weight on yesterday's Mainstreet tracker, which was rather poor for the Liberals. Of course, this will be reversed this afternoon unless Mainstreet has them up significantly.
- The Bloc is also down quite a bit - and in fact their drop in QC is bigger than the Liberals' national drop.

The Greens are at their highest popular support level in the projection since mid-August. The Mainstreet and Forum polls are discussed in an update to the polling-related adjustments post.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 26)
LIB - 153.0 (33.6%)
CON - 145.1 (36.0%)
NDP - 18.2 (12.4%)
BQ - 17.5 (5.0%)
GRN - 3.2 (9.8%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Jonquière from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Kitchener South--Hespeler from LIBs.

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