Sunday, May 1, 2011

Small Mistake

Because of the Elizabeth May's presence in Central Nova in 2008, I made an adjustment for that riding, namely that it is projected using 2004 and 2006 election results. It turns out there was a sign mistake in the formula, and that riding should have been projected NDP instead of Conservative since today's first update. Those posts will be updated with the correct numbers shortly.

16 comments:

Ian said...

Wait a minute, that's Peter McKay's riding.

Did I understand that correctly? Are you projecting that NDP will take down Peter McKay?

Anonymous said...

Already happened at "308".

Election Watcher said...

Yes. But it's essentially a tossup. In 2006, that came within 8% of happening.

Anonymous said...

Would mean there is some justice in the world. Or at least a defeat for political lying. Since McKay swore to the last PC convention that he would not merge the party with the CA.

Anonymous said...

I doubt McKay will lose that seat. Formulas are wonderful things, but a sitting MP whose family has held the riding for more than 30 years has "goodwill" that withstands buffets and gusts. This election is hardly like 1993 for the Tories and that is the only time in the past several decades that Central Nova went anything but Tory.

Election Watcher said...

Yeah, the seat-by-seat projections are really just for fun. This may well not come to pass. But unforeseen things happen in a wave...

Andy JS said...

Target list for the NDP for swings of up to 10%:

bit.ly/l9QPDZ

Target list for the Conservatives for swings of up to 10%:

http://bit.ly/l9QPDZ

I'm going to extend the NDP target list because a 10% swing would only yield them an extra 26 seats and a lot of the polls indicate they could gain more seats than that.

It's interesting that a 10% swing to the NDP in Quebec would only yield them an extra 3 seats. Clearly they need much larger swings than 10% to make a breakthrough but of course the polls do indicate that will happen.

Andy JS said...

Apologies - the link for the Conservatives target list should have been this one:

http://bit.ly/mO3eBL

Andy said...

Well, the NDP in Quebec has only ever elected two people a total of three times (only once in a general election). It's a whole new ballgame there, so I'm not sure how relevant past NDP support would be to NDP support this time.

Anonymous said...

Tory's up 8.2% in Sunday 732 people Nanos Poll. Majority still alive?

Anonymous said...

Be careful, the margin of error is pretty big with such a small sample.

Anonymous said...

Not so big -- its 3.7% vs 3.0 for the 2 day and 2.6 for the 3 day.

What is clear is that the Saturday poll showing a tie was anomalous and distorted things.......

Either that or the population saw what was over the edge and decided to draw back.

Anonymous said...

Link to latest Nanos? Thanks

Miles Lunn said...

I wonder what impact the Royal wedding and UFC event in Toronto had. If supporters of a certain party were more likely to watch those events then it would drag numbers down in the polls. I suspect the Conservatives did better amongst watchers of those two events thus the change.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

Click there for the breakdown -- shows interesting daily results -- I think the Saturday figures are problematic. But averaged out over a few days, they perhaps don't do too much damage distorting things. Perhaps I am fooling myself, but I think the Sunday double sample size figures are more likely to be accurate and indicative of where things stand...

Anonymous said...

Central Nova NDP have a weak candidate and still has a Grit presence. For MacKay to lose woul be more suprising than the NDP sweeping Alberta.