It is becoming clearer and clearer that Ontario is turning its back to the Grits. This is great news for Stephen Harper's majority prospects (but see update 2 below). The Tories pick up two more GTA seats from the Liberals in the projection.
[Update: A word of caution: this poll says that the Tories lead the Liberals by 10% in the GTA, a huge change from 2008 when the Grits won the area by 8%. However, the poll defines the GTA as "the two-dozen ridings in the City of Toronto itself, and more than 30 ridings in the surrounding metropolitan area." That's at least 53 ridings, while usually the GTA only includes 42 ridings. Adding those 11 ridings means that, in fact, the GTA did not swing by 18% as might appear at first glance. Fortunately, I did not use Forum's GTA numbers for the projection.]
[Update 2: The GTA/non-GTA divide is very important. The Tories' main competitors in the GTA are still the Liberals, but elsewhere in Ontario, it's now the NDP. So if the Liberals are bleeding in the GTA, it's good news for Harper. But if they're bleeding elsewhere, that could hurt the Conservatives.]
The other changes in the projection are an NDP gain from the Liberals in Toronto and another NDP gain from the Bloc.
LIB - 46
BQ - 13
The Tory national lead shrinks to 7.1%.