10:00p: Conservative majority projected.
NL: 1-2-4 as projected, but Tories take Labrador, not Avalon.
NS: 4-3-4, NDP doesn't take Central Nova or South Shore--St. Margaret's.
PE: 1-0-3, Tories don't take Malpeque.
NB: 8-1-1, Tories also take Madawaska--Restigouche.
Atlantic: 14-6-12, Tories 2 above projection, NDP 2 short.
10:17p: Bloc leads in just 4 out of 72 Quebec ridings.
10:19p: Iggy trailing.
10:26p: So to all those that said I had the Tories too high and the Bloc too low. Well, it's the opposite.
10:31p: Tories about 5% higher than polls virtually everywhere. Pollsters appear to have failed miserably.
10:40p: Have we just witnessed the death of the Liberal Party of Canada?
10:43p: With the polls this wrong, obviously none of the projectors did well. In fact, if someone came very close, that means their model converting votes into seats has a problem! But it looks like I'm among the least bad...
10:48p: Conservative majority, Bloc loses official party status. Only suspense left: will the Greens elect MPs? Nothing yet from Saanich--Gulf Islands or Vancouver Centre.
10:53p: 3 of 5 leaders ahead in their ridings. Iggy not among them...
11:02p: It is conceivable that the Liberals could be down to one seat west of the GTA (Ralph Goodale in Wascana), and the Bloc could be down to one seat overall!
11:06p: It's the opposite of 2004, when many Americans considered moving to Canada. Several of my friends are already considering moving South...
11:23p: If the Conservatives end up with 41-42% of the vote, that would be within the margin of error of the last poll of none of the 11 pollsters that have released a national survey during the campaign. Everyone was too low, except for COMPAS, who would be too high. We'll see if that's where things end up... One also wonders if this whole campaign was fake, and the Conservatives were in fact always comfortably in majority territory and toying with the media.
11:37p: All 28 Alberta races have been called, and went as projected.
11:39p: Interesting tidbit: Tories win popular vote in PEI, but just 1 of 4 seats.
11:51p: Will having your supporters intimidate the media and just taking 5 questions a day that you don't answer anyway be the standard way to campaign in Canada from now on? Will asking for emails of the government's critics and removing social scientists' tools to evaluate policy be the standard way to govern Canada from now on? Clearly, Canadians don't give a damn.
11:57p: The only Bloc candidate declared elected up to now is Jean-François Fortin, in the open seat of Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia. The reason why he won is that the Liberals presented a very popular candidate, who split the vote with the NDP.
12:04a: Elizabeth May declared elected in Saanich--Gulf Islands!
12:14a: Michael Ignatieff lost in Etobicoke--Lakeshore!
12:37a: All 14 Saskatchewan ridings have been called, and the outcome is the same as in 2008, so the projected NDP gain did not materialize. In the 6 provinces where all races have been called, I was correct in 67/74. This score will certain decrease when the 4 other provinces, Ontario, Québec, BC and Manitoba, are included.
1:02a: All 14 Manitoba ridings have been called, and the Tories make a net gain of two on the NDP. They take Elmwood--Transcona from the Dippers and Elmwood--Transcona from the Liberals, who avoid being shut out by holding onto Winnipeg North, which they won in a by-election.
1:09a: Well, it's time to call it a night! For now, if one assumes candidates leading at this point will win their ridings:
QC: 6-59-6-4, 58/75 correct
ON: 72-22-12, 90/106 correct
BC: 21-12-2-1, 34/36 correct
North: 2-1, 2/3 correct
Canada: 166-103-34-4-1, 262/308 = 85%
Tomorrow, I will post maps of the results and compare my projections to those of the 7 other websites using poll averages.