Saturday, May 14, 2011

Safe Seats

Safest Seat in Each Province

NL - St. John's East (NDP by 50.3%)
PE - Egmont (CON by 23.3%)
NS - Central Nova (CON by 32%)
NB - Acadie--Bathurst (NDP by 53.5%)
QC - Gatineau (NDP by 46.7%)
ON - Wellington--Halton Hills (CON by 47.3%)
MB - Portage--Lisgar (CON by 66.2%)
SK - Souris--Moose Mountain (CON by 55.3%)
AB - Crowfoot (CON by 74.8%)
BC - Abbotsford (CON by 44.8%)
North - Nunavut (CON by 21.2%)

It's quite striking that the safest seat in Québec is a turnover. Also, the safest seat in Nova Scotia was projected incorrectly (though I'm in good company): MacKay was far from safe in 2006, and of course it was hard to say what to make of 2008 with May as a candidate.

Seats Won by over 50%

Outside Alberta
66.2% - Portage--Lisgar, MB (CON)
55.3% - Souris--Moose Mountain, SK (CON)
53.5% - Acadie--Bathurst, NB (NDP)
52.7% - Provencher, MB (CON)
50.3% - St. John's East, NL (NDP)

In Alberta (obviously all Conservative)
74.8% - Crowfoot
70.0% - Wetaskiwin
68.5% - Vegreville--Wainwright
67.1% - Macleod
66.0% - Calgary Southeast
65.7% - Westlock--St. Paul
64.0% - Yellowhead
63.5% - Wild Rose
63.2% - Calgary Southwest
60.8% - Red Deer
59.6% - Peace River
58.6% - Fort McMurray--Athabasca
58.5% - Medicine Hat
57.7% - Calgary--Nose Hill
55.3% - Edmonton--Spruce Grove
53.3% - Calgary East

The only riding outside of Edmonton or Calgary that was decided by less than 58.4% was Lethbridge, where Conservative Jim Hillyer won by 29.3% (he still carried 56.5% of the vote). This is the mystery candidate known for going to the bathroom when cornered by a reporter.

The median margin of victory in Alberta was 56.5%...

Addendum: The largest margin of victory for a Liberal was 31.9% in Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte; outside of Newfoundland, it was 19.1% in York West. The largest Bloc margin was 10.5% in Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia (new MP), less than Elizabeth May's 10.7% cushion in Saanich--Gulf Islands.

Just under half the ridings went by over 20%: 106 to Tories, 41 to Dippers and 2 to Liberals.

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