Sunday, May 1, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 6.4

The latest Nanos poll shows a slightly smaller Tory-NDP national gap, but there is no big variation in terms of the regional splits. Interestingly, the NDP lead over the Bloc is down from 16.8% to 13.5%. While this is not a statistically significant change, if such a shift were real, it could cost the NDP several seats. The other important number to observe is the Tory lead over the Liberals in Ontario. Nanos has it at 5.1%, up slightly from 3.6%, but still nowhere near what Harper needs for a majority.

Adding this projection to the poll mix shifts one Tory seat to the NDP in Ontario due to the depreciation of older surveys. Update: It also shifts a Nova Scotia Tory seat to the NDP:

CON - 152 151
NDP - 93 94
LIB - 49
BQ - 14

The average Conservative national lead is 7.6%.

If I interpret this tweet correctly, Nanos suggests that the Saturday numbers were tight, and will release another poll at 9pm tonight containing data from today. This means that we can still expect at least three more polls today, EKOS, Abacus and Nanos, with more likely.

3 comments:

Skoblin said...

http://abacusdata.ca/2011/05/01/2827/

Anonymous said...

Harris Decima will have a poll out later today.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Skoblin, I saw that, and the update is up. And thanks to Anonymous, that's good to hear :)