Sunday, May 1, 2011

EKOS: Tories by 2.7

The final EKOS poll is now here. The Conservatives lead the Liberals by 11.4% in Ontario, which would imply roughly 60 Conservative seats. However, they trail the NDP by 2.1% in BC, which would seriously dent their chances of a majority. The Tories are also third in the Atlantic, and just 9.2% ahead of the NDP in MB/SK, both of which would imply seat losses.

I will post my final projection overnight, before the polls open in Newfoundland at 7 a.m. EDT. They will not change much from the current projection as, taken together, Nanos and EKOS suggest very modest shifts.

The projection will be accompanied by maps, a completed trend graph, a list of ridings changing hands, and some analysis. So check back tomorrow morning, or later tonight!

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

The sample size for this Ekos poll is very large and if you look at the Gta numbers for the ekos poll the conservative lead is statistically insignificant (i.e they are tied).

Anonymous said...

The problem with Ekos is methodology. They use automated calling and whoever answers can be polled by punching numbers.

Anonymous said...

But automation can be good. Folks are more honest when they are not afraid of what 'a human' might think of their choice.

Anonymous said...

Ask CBC with their Vote Compass. It is equally mindless. And equally useless.

Skoblin said...

Well...already election day. Regardless of the results and regardless of whichever party wins, there will be a significant number of Canadians suffering from voters' remorse on Tuesday morning.

Thank you, EW, for all the number crunching and analysis. A lot of hard work and fully appreciated from my end.

Good luck Canada...and Lord help us....

Anonymous said...

May 1 Forum poll has conservatives by 3 but with favourable regional splits. BQ is very poor (3rd place outside of Montreal)

Anonymous said...

EW. interested to see your analysis of the impact of these final polls. The two May 1 polls for the BQ in Quebec look pretty brutal so it looks like their situation is still deteriorating.
Thanks for all your work.

Election Watcher said...

Skoblin and Anon 2:31a: Thanks! It's certainly a much more interesting election that I would have imagined when starting this blog. I think the May 1 polls for the BQ are pretty much on par with previous ones though.

Anon 2:09a: Do you mean the poll published in the morning of May 1, or did they poll again during the day?

Anonymous said...

Anon2:09 It looks like they polled again since data was presented as May 1 only. According to Canadian Election polls the previous poll was April 30. Results are close, except BQ 1 point lower and Conservatives 1 point higher.

Thanks again for your work

Election Watcher said...

Ah I found the poll. Thanks for the pointer!