Seat projections by a British Columbian and former Quebecer. Occasional random observations and opinions.
Latest national poll median date: October 20 Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.
So it looks like there could be a 20% swing from BQ to NDP in Quebec province. My target list at the moment only includes swings of 10% so I'm extending it at the moment.
This is the most sensible election site of the lot. I admire its thoroughness and sophistication. However, with a relatively lower voting committment and the lack of election day machinery in Quebec (and other places where there has been no real organization in the past), it is conceivable that a significant number of those who declared themselves NDP to pollsters may not get to the polls. Also, the Tory support has remained relatively solid for weeks despite all manner of attacks, "revelations" and "scandals". Its committment is very high as evidenced by a number of polls which asked how definite the respondent's intention was. Additonally, there is the "all hope is lost" factor which might infect a sufficient number of Liberals voters to cause them to stay home in crucial Ontario ridings.
I sure am not putting money on it,but I would not be surprsised if we saw something like 160/87/46/14/1
Here are the maps for the projection. The one for Montréal is the most striking.
5 comments:
My final prediction (seats):
Cons 146
NDP 94
Libs 49
Bloc 21
My final prediction (vote):
Cons 37%
NDP 32%
Libs 21%
Bloc 5%
Green 4%
Other 1%
So it looks like there could be a 20% swing from BQ to NDP in Quebec province. My target list at the moment only includes swings of 10% so I'm extending it at the moment.
This is the most sensible election site of the lot. I admire its thoroughness and sophistication. However, with a relatively lower voting committment and the lack of election day machinery in Quebec (and other places where there has been no real organization in the past), it is conceivable that a significant number of those who declared themselves NDP to pollsters may not get to the polls. Also, the Tory support has remained relatively solid for weeks despite all manner of attacks, "revelations" and "scandals". Its committment is very high as evidenced by a number of polls which asked how definite the respondent's intention was. Additonally, there is the "all hope is lost" factor which might infect a sufficient number of Liberals voters to cause them to stay home in crucial Ontario ridings.
I sure am not putting money on it,but I would not be surprsised if we saw something like 160/87/46/14/1
Zanna
Thanks for your kind words Zanna! I'd say there's a 25-30% chance that the Tories get 160 or more, so that's definitely a plausible scenario.
It looks like you think Peter Mackay is going down. That will be an interesting one.
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