Monday, May 2, 2011

Final Projection: Seats Changing Hands, Québec

These are seats changing hands relative to the 2008 General Election, ignoring any intervening by-elections.

NDP 44 (+43), 40%
BQ 15 (-34), 25%
CON 8 (-2), 17%
LIB 7 (-7), 15%
IND 1 (=)

Liberal to NDP (7)
Brossard--La Prairie
Honoré-Mercier
Hull--Aylmer
LaSalle--Émard
Laval--Les Îles
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine
Westmount--Ville-Marie

Conservative to NDP (3)
Beauport--Limoilou
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles
Pontiac

Bloc to Conservative (1)
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup

Bloc to NDP (33)
All remaining ridings, EXCEPT:
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour
Berthier--Maskinongé
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia
Joliette
Laurentides--Labelle
Manicouagan
Montcalm
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord
Québec
Repentigny
Richmond--Arthabaska
Rivière-du-Nord
Sherbrooke

4 comments:

willge said...

Don't the Conservatives already hold Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup?

Anonymous said...

You deleted my post. Thanks a lot.

I still think you have the Bloc way too low.

Anonymous said...

NDP 39
Bloc 21
Libs 9
Cons 6

Agree with above Anon that Bloc will do better than a lot of people expect.

Election Watcher said...

willge: That changed during a by-election, and I'm comparing my projection to 2008 results.

Anon 7:48a: No, you posted it under the Atlantic Canada thread. It's still there. I don't censor unless there are personal attacks :)

Anon 8:12a: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bloc anywhere from 4 to 26 seats.