Sunday, May 1, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 8.2 on Sunday, 5.5 over Weekend

The last Nanos poll is here, along with a daily breakdown of the national results here. Interesting, just like last year, the Tories' support increases on the last day before the vote, and last year, it's Nanos' last-day numbers that came closest to the mark. Will the Tories win by 8%, more than what every pollster (except COMPAS) has been showing in the past week?

The two notable movements in this poll are both good news for the Conservatives: their lead over the Liberals in Ontario more than doubled, from 5.1% to 11.3%, while the NDP lost 7% in BC and is now 13% behind.

I will wait for the last EKOS poll before making a new projection.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

And I will have a glass of something (not bubbly -- that waits till tomorrow evening and then it will either be beer to cry in or champagne to celebrate with).......Things appear to be settling down into more familiar patterns of behaviour.

willge said...

Is the rule that polling must not be done on E-Day or that the results of polls cannot be announced on E-Day? If so, EKOS needs to get his results out before it hits midnight in NFLD.

Anonymous said...

How do you work with such a high number of "undecided" voters just hours before the election?

Also, considering the margin of error, it means the support for all the parties has been stable for days now.

Will be interesting to see what happens.

GSN said...

Just passed 12 AM in the NFLD time zone. No ekes poll?

Anonymous said...

Undecided is either a polite word for "I'm not going to vote" (particularly so at this stage) or is a polite way of saying "This is a secret ballot and I don't have to tell you."

Anonymous said...

yep, 12:03 here, just checked Ekos..nothing

Andy JS said...

I’ve just had another look through all the Quebec constituencies. A 15% uniform swing to the NDP would only increase Layton’s number of seats in the province from 1 to 10. (A 15% swing would wipe out a 30% margin of victory from the last election).

So 65 out of Quebec’s total of 75 seats would require a swing of more than 15% for an NDP gain.

willge said...

Bin Laden might be dead.

Election Watcher said...

Matter of minutes now. Hopefully EKOS doesn't get into trouble for being 10 mins late.

Andy JS: Projected swing in Quebec NDP-Bloc is around 42% at this point.

Election Watcher said...

willge: That was exactly my thought. We shall see...

GSN said...

Unless I am mistaken, Ekos won't be able to publish the result of its last poll. Can you just make the final projection now so we call all go to sleep?

Anonymous said...

If the last day of Nanos is correct then it will be a Conservative majority government.

Anonymous said...

He'll be able to publish it. No one in Newfoundland will be allowed to look at it :-)

GSN said...

Franky won't publish his last poll unless he is willing to go to prison for violation of the election law.

Anonymous said...

And if Frank Graves saw the same thing and decided to hold back the information he would not be playing nice.......

GSN said...

Lol I have to eat my words

Anonymous said...

IT'S OUT!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I REALLY REALLY hope he is right. Obviously, I don't plan to vote Conservative.

Nanos VS. EKOS

Only one can be right. Someone will be discredited on election night.

Miles Lunn said...

True Nanos is a bit more favourable to the Tories, but it would be interesting to see the day by day breakdown. It seems Saturday was a good day for the NDP and bad one for the Tories, while Sunday was a better one for the Tories.

willge said...

But, neither of them were the most accurate pollsters in 2008.

EKOS got his poll out last, sure, but there is way bigger news.

Miles Lunn said...

I should note the Ontario numbers are virtually identical in both Nanos and Ekos. The lower Tory support is probably due to their lower numbers elsewhere which seem rather low as if they held their vote in Ontario, I expect they will elsewhere in English Canada, albeit not gaining anything.

Anonymous said...

Bin Laden is dead. I am watching baseball from Philly and the fans are going "U S A U S A" and the players don't know why.

Anonymous said...

Maybe another tyrant will fall tomorrow !!

willge said...

A friend raised an interesting question. Can Harper even release a statement on the death of Bin Laden? It might be construed as campaigning, but he is still technically Prime Minister.

Evan Z. said...

I'm a long-time NDP supporter (65) living in BC. I sure like the Ekos numbers over those of either Nanos or Decima. But the problem is, Nanos was supposed have predicted the closest to the actual results of the last election. But I like the MOE for the Ekos poll.

willge said...

Actually Angus Reid was the closest to the results in 2008 I think. NANOS might have been the most accurate in 2004 and 2006.

GSN said...

And the infamous Compass was the most accurate pollster in the 2000 election.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:16 -- that is just silly ... I suppose it reflects the "new civility" that we are to embrace?

Election Watcher said...

Miles: Exactly my thought. The Tory-Liberal gap is almost identical in the Nanos and EKOS, and 6% more than in 2008. So the two are similar in the most important place. But Nanos has better Tory numbers in the Atlantic and BC.

Every seat will be important tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Should start May 3rd. anon 11:16