Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Final Projection: Seats Changing Hands, Ontario

These are seats changing hands relative to the 2008 General Election, ignoring any intervening by-elections.

CON 62 (+11), 40%
NDP 22 (+5), 27%
LIB 22 (-16), 26%

Liberal to Conservative (12)
Ajax--Pickering
Bramalea--Gore--Malton
Brampton--Springdale
Brampton West
Don Valley West
Eglinton--Lawrence
Kingston and the Islands
Mississauga South
Mississauga--Streetsville
Richmond Hill
Vaughan
York Centre

Liberal to NDP (4)
Beaches--East York
Davenport
Guelph
Parkdale--High Park

Conservative to NDP (1)
Oshawa

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have the Cons one seat higher -- taking Guleph, instead of the NDP. And the NDP taking York South Weston from the Liberals.

Election Watcher said...

Sounds reasonable :)

Brian Roastbeef said...

Isn't Vaughan a Tory hold?

Election Watcher said...

Brian: Yes, but as stated in the post, these are relative to 2008 results. The Tories took Vaughan in a by-election.