Angus Reid has released its final poll of the campaign, and it has the Liberals up 4, the NDP down 3, and the Tories down 2. This produces a 4-point national lead for the Liberals. Angus Reid's likely voter model brings it down to a 1-point national lead. However, in Ontario, Angus Reid's likely voter screen does not change the numbers, and the Liberals have a 10-point lead either way, up from a tie in last week's poll. This is good news for the Liberals since Ontario is where their support level matters most. On the other hand, in BC, Angus Reid puts the Liberals 3-4 points (7-9 points with the likely voter screen) behind the other parties, unlike most other recent polls that have the Liberals at least tied for the lead. Interestingly, Angus Reid's likely voter model does not penalize the NDP even though it has lower support among seniors.
Today's EKOS shows mostly stability. The NDP has come down a little in QC (to 30.4%, consistent with what other polls show), and the Liberal lead in ON shrinks again, to 7.1%. Neither of these shifts are statistically significant, though given that the Liberals need to win ON by around 8% to win the election, we're really in an area where every point there can make the difference.
The updated projection moves toward the Liberals due mostly to the reduction of the weight on last week's Angus Reid:
CON - 128, -3 (33.1%, -0.3%)
LIB - 123, +2 (34.7%, +0.4%)
NDP - 82, +1 (22.4%, -0.1%)
BQ - 4 (4.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.2%)
This gives a 40-45% chance of winning to the Liberals. Note that when a pollster provides likely voter figures, I use those (instead of my own adjustment) for the projection. I still use the eligible voter figures for the unadjusted projection below:
LIB - 134 (35.6%)
CON - 113 (31.4%)
NDP - 84 (22.9%)
BQ - 6 (4.5%)
GRN - 1 (4.4%)
This gives the Tories a roughly 25% chance of winning.
Tomorrow morning, Léger and Mainstreet should release their final national polls of the campaign.