Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Nanos: NDP Keeps Sinking

Today's Nanos poll features another drop for the NDP, who are at 22.8% nationally, and only 2 points ahead of the Liberals in Québec. On the other hand, the Liberal lead over the Tories in ON has shrunk to 4 points - probably just reversion to the mean, as the 9-to-10-point gap of the past two days was not close to matching the polling average.

The updated projection is:

CON - 143 (33.6%)
NDP - 101, +1 (25.9%, -0.2%)
LIB - 90, -1 (29.5%, +0.3%)
BQ - 3 (5.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%)

The Liberals drop a seat to the NDP in ON, but the NDP gets closer to losing dozens of seats in QC.

The unadjusted projection is:

CON - 130 (31.9%)
NDP - 103 (26.6%)
LIB - 99 (30.3%)
BQ - 5 (5.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%)

We'll likely hear from Ipsos today (though the detailed breakdown may only become available tomorrow if Global doesn't post it), and may also hear from EKOS (who tentatively promised to switch to daily reporting early this week - unclear if it's today or tomorrow) and Mainstreet (this too could be later in the week). If the trends observed by Nanos are confirmed, things could get ugly for the NDP.

Update: Apparently, the Mainstreet numbers are, in fact, from an Alberta-only poll, which has the Tories back up to 63%. This poll has a monster sample size of 3,258, and will be included in the next projection. Most probably, it will take away one of the two NDP seats in AB.

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