Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Innovative: What Movement?

A new poll by Innovative Research still shows a three-way race. This poll is very much like this morning's Léger poll, except that the NDP held at 34% in Québec (still down 5 from last week's Innovative poll) instead of dropping to 28%. The 9% Liberal lead in ON here (along with the 5% Liberal lead from Léger this morning) essentially neutralizes the Angus Reid poll from yesterday showing the Tories 12% up there.

The Liberals claw back more of the ground lost due to yesterday's Angus Reid poll:

CON - 143, -1 (33.6%, -0.3%)
NDP - 102 (26.5%, +0.1%)
LIB - 89, +1 (29.3%, +0.2%)
BQ - 3 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

This is the closest that the Liberals have been to second place all campaign. At 33% in Québec, the NDP is entering the zone where every point costs multiple seats. So if the NDP drops just a tad more there, we could see the Liberals inch ahead of the NDP in the seat count. (If Léger's right, we're already there.)

Forum has three riding polls in downtown Toronto. No big surprise there: the NDP is slightly ahead in Spadina--Fort York, the Liberals have a slight lead in Toronto Centre, and it's a tight race in University--Rosedale.

No comments: