Today's EKOS poll shows that the Liberal lead has shrunk from 4.2 points to 0.9 points. In ON, the Liberal lead is 10.7; that's a healthy lead, but not the 18.1 from yesterday. The NDP maintained a good level in Québec (34%), but lost its very temporary lead in BC; overall, it gave back 1/3 of its gains from yesterday, suggesting that it has not started a surge.
Mainstreet and Insights West both published a batch of BC riding polls. As a result, I am making these riding adjustments (expressed with respect to existing regional adjustments; all adjustments are listed here, here and here):
Burnaby North--Seymour: CON +5, LIB -5
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke: NDP +5, LIB -5
Vancouver South: CON +5, LIB -5
To balance out these and previous riding adjustments in BC: NDP -0.5, LIB +0.5 in all of BC
These developments are generally favourable to the Conservatives, who claw back most of their losses from this morning's update:
CON - 133, +4 (33.4%, +0.2%)
LIB - 119, -3 (34.1%, -0.1%)
NDP - 81, -1 (22.5%, -0.2%)
BQ - 4 (4.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%, -0.1%)
With these numbers, we're talking a 30-35% chance of the Liberals being in the lead.
The unadjusted projection is:
LIB - 131 (35.0%)
CON - 116 (31.7%)
NDP - 83 (23.1%)
BQ - 7 (4.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)
This is essentially the opposite of the adjusted projection: 30-35% chance of a Conservative lead.
I'm guessing that starting tomorrow, we should get an avalanche of various pollsters' final polls. If all firms that have published a national poll during the campaign decide to have a final say, we'll get 8 national polls (Abacus, Angus Reid, Environics, Forum, Innovative, Ipsos, Léger, Mainstreet) on top of the daily Nanos and EKOS surveys. We may also get provincial/regional polls from CRA (Atlantic), CROP (Québec) and Insights West (BC, Alberta).
I will post trends this evening to provide a good idea of how we got to where we are now. Tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday, I will do the standard two updates each day. There will be an additional final update late Sunday night / wee hours of Monday, and hopefully (if I'm not too tired by that point) some analysis posts (trends, strategic voting, things to watch for election night) throughout Election Day. I also hope to provide an interim projection around 9:00-9:15pm ET based on Atlantic results, just before polls close in most of the country. So stay tuned for some exciting days!