I missed the last Forum Research poll, conducted yesterday, as it was not reported by the Hill Times. It has the Tories jumping by 4 points in Ontario, but losing the lead to the NDP by 2 points in BC.
The final projection might have been different for Etobicoke Centre (that's the seat that I moved from Tories to Grits to balance risk in Ontario), Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo (very narrowly projected Conservative over NDP), and perhaps Vancouver South (ditto over LPC).
BTW, what time can we legally start discussing election results?
A jump from three points isn't important from a statistical point of view since it is inside the margin of error.
I'm surprised to see that NDP is almost relatively uniform in Quebec - same level both inside Montreal and outside the city.
willge: 10pm EDT
Anon 12:08p: That's why the NDP does so well in the projection. It's first virtually everywhere...
That's because both Bloc and Liberal as well as many ex-Cons voters have flocked to the NDP. The difference is that in urban areas NDP had a greater pool to draw from. That is why it will probably win more seats in urban areas in the end.
Results can be shared at 10 PM (Eastern Time)
Supports my prediction that the NDP will gain 5 seats in BC, 3 from the Conservatives and 2 from the Liberals.
I've extended the NDP target list I've been working on to include swings of up to 20% in Quebec since this is what the polls are showing could happen:
Here’s the Conservative target list:
I'm intending to blank out the old results and fill in the new results when they start to be reported. I hope the target lists are useful.
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