Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

It's Not a Good Sign...

... when the featured article of Québec's main federalist newspaper's website is titled, "Newspapers in English Canada Demand the Marginalization of Québec".

Columnists like Lorne Gunter might consider that, in fact, that a majority of Canadians outside Québec voted for what he calls a "hysterical approach to the environment." Indeed, if he truly wants various groups' influence on policy to be proportionate to population, well, 60% of Canadians voted for left-of-centre parties.

I've blogged about this before (yes, part IV of that post is now obsolete), but at this point it's relevant to remember that Bill C-12 would make Québec's seat share in the House of Commons disproportionately low. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP puts up a fight, now that it is the main custodian of Québec's interests.

(Here are the facts: taking into account the most recent population estimates and census undercounting, Bill C-12 would likely give Ontario 13-16 extra seats, Alberta 6-7, and BC 5-6. This means a House size of 332-337, implying a Québec weight of 22.3-22.6%. Under current law, Québec's weight in the House would decrease to around 23.9%, while its population share is 23.2%. Therefore, under Bill C-12, Québec's weight in the Commons will be as far from its population share as it would be under current law - just in the opposite direction.)

No comments: