Canadian Election Watch: Final Projection: Seats Changing Hands, Ontario

Monday, May 2, 2011

Final Projection: Seats Changing Hands, Ontario

These are seats changing hands relative to the 2008 General Election, ignoring any intervening by-elections.

CON 62 (+11), 40%
NDP 22 (+5), 27%
LIB 22 (-16), 26%

Liberal to Conservative (12)
Ajax--Pickering
Bramalea--Gore--Malton
Brampton--Springdale
Brampton West
Don Valley West
Eglinton--Lawrence
Kingston and the Islands
Mississauga South
Mississauga--Streetsville
Richmond Hill
Vaughan
York Centre

Liberal to NDP (4)
Beaches--East York
Davenport
Guelph
Parkdale--High Park

Conservative to NDP (1)
Oshawa

4 comments:

Anonymous said...: I have the Cons one seat higher -- taking Guleph, instead of the NDP. And the NDP taking York South Weston from the Liberals.; May 2, 2011 at 5:08 AM
Election Watcher said...: Sounds reasonable :); May 2, 2011 at 5:56 AM
Brian Roastbeef said...: Isn't Vaughan a Tory hold?; May 2, 2011 at 2:16 PM
Election Watcher said...: Brian: Yes, but as stated in the post, these are relative to 2008 results. The Tories took Vaughan in a by-election.; May 2, 2011 at 4:07 PM

	157
	121
	32
	24
	3
	1


BC	11	17		11	2
AB		33		1
SK		14
MB	4	7		3
ON	79	36		6
QC	35	10	32	1
NB	6	3			1
NS	10	1
PE	4
NL	6			1
Terr.	2			1

			Top other
CAN	33.6	32.1	18.1
BC	32.8	27.1	25.0
AB	62.4	16.4	15.5
M/S	48.4	21.9	22.9
ON	33.9	38.5	18.7
QC	15.7	33.1	31.3
ATL	28.6	38.5	19.7


Tot	135	130	39	31	1
BC	9	18		13	1
AB		33		1
SK	1	13
MB	5	7		2
ON	68	43		10
QC	30	7	39	1
NB	3	6		1
NS	8	1		2
PE	3	1
NL	5	1		1
Ter	3

	184
	99
	44
	10
	1

Atlantic (32)
	26
	4
	1
	1


Québec (78)
	35
	32
	10
	1


Ontario (121)
	79
	36
	6


West/Terr. (107)
	71
	17
	16
	2
	1

	133.2
	132.7
	35.3
	34.5
	1.2
	0.6
	0.5

Atlantic (32)
	32


Québec (78)
	40
	16
	12
	10


Ontario (121)
	80
	33
	8


West/Terr. (107)
	54
	32
	20
	1