Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Final Projection: Seats Changing Hands, Atlantic Canada

These are seats changing hands relative to the 2008 General Election, ignoring any intervening by-elections.

CON 12 (+2), 32%
LIB 12 (-5), 28%
NDP 8 (+4), 34%

Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal to Conservative: Avalon
Liberal to NDP: St. John's South--Mount Pearl

Prince Edward Island
Liberal to Conservative: Malpeque

Nova Scotia
Liberal to NDP: Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
Conservative to NDP: Central Nova, South Shore--St. Margaret's
Independent to Conservative: Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley

New Brunswick
Liberal to Conservative: Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe


Anonymous said...

I think your Bloc count is too low.

Anonymous said...

Libs 13
Cons 10

Anonymous said...

I really can't imagine Peter/Elmer MacKay losing in Central Nova,

David MacDonald said...

Peter will not lose Central Nova. I live in the riding and I would be completely shocked if he went below 40% or lost. So, unless the Liberals or NDP plummet and get 40% or more, this is a Tory hold.

Election Watcher said...

David: Thanks for your input. The model is showing NDP 41% to MacKay 38%, so it's basically a tossup.