Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Harris-Decima: Tories by 6

Harris-Decima has released its final poll, which is favourable to the Conservatives. The main highlight of this survey is the 15% Conservative lead over the NDP in Ontario (17% over the Liberals), a big change from a 1% Liberal lead in last week's numbers. Also, Harris-Decima has the Tories with a 10% lead in Atlantic Canada, though this diverges from all other polls and is probably due to small sample.

There are no changes in the projection: The Grits lose one seat to the Tories in BC:

CON - 153 154 153
NDP - 97 98
LIB - 45 44
BQ - 13

The average Conservative national lead is 7.1%.


Anonymous said...

Last two days of the poll have it at 35-30-21, as opposed to 36-30-19 for the full week.

Anonymous said...

I was not expecting a Harris poll. So now we just have Nanos. I would summarize the factors that might lead to change as:
1. Desire for majority;
2. Stop the NDP;
3. Stop the Conservatives;
4. Masturgate;
5. Preserve the BQ.

Anonymous said...

I think Ekos might have another one.

mark said...

Unfortunately, this poll covers answers that were collected over the last 7-14 days. It's far too long a period to conclude what the voter support is right now. Any change over those 7-14 days would be rather underestimated.

Anonymous said...

The HD poll and other polls relying on data collected over 3 or 4 are most likely less relaiable (because relatively stale-dated) than the more up to date Forum poll (very large sample size all collected yesterday) and Ekos poll (much larger sample size compared with HDcollected over 3 days).

Election Watcher said...

Anon 7:21p: Are you sure that's not over the past 2 *weeks*?

Anon 7:24p: Anon 7:25p is right, both EKOS and Nanos are still to come. We also haven't heard from Innovative or Environics for a while, and I'm wondering if Angus Reid will have something as well. So probably 2, but potentially up to 5.

Anon 7:36p and 7:39p: Yes, and this is taken into account in the poll weights.

Election Watcher said...

*Oops, not Anon 7:36, but Mark :)

Anonymous said...

The one-week numbers were gathered between 28-01 if I read correctly, so not THAT stale. But sample size is modest and the two-week numbers are stale.

Election Watcher said...

Yeah, I should have been more precise: the one-week numbers were included at full value (they include polling from today!), while the two-week numbers were included at a discount.