These are seats changing hands relative to the 2008 General Election, ignoring any intervening by-elections.
CON 12 (+2), 32%
LIB 12 (-5), 28%
NDP 8 (+4), 34%
Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal to Conservative: Avalon
Liberal to NDP: St. John's South--Mount Pearl
Prince Edward Island
Liberal to Conservative: Malpeque
Liberal to NDP: Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
Conservative to NDP: Central Nova, South Shore--St. Margaret's
Independent to Conservative: Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley
Liberal to Conservative: Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe
I think your Bloc count is too low.
I really can't imagine Peter/Elmer MacKay losing in Central Nova,
Peter will not lose Central Nova. I live in the riding and I would be completely shocked if he went below 40% or lost. So, unless the Liberals or NDP plummet and get 40% or more, this is a Tory hold.
David: Thanks for your input. The model is showing NDP 41% to MacKay 38%, so it's basically a tossup.
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