This survey has the NDP surging to a large lead in Atlantic Canada, which some other polls have shown as well. In Québec, the Bloc has fallen to 22.8%, giving the NDP a 17.1% lead. In Ontario, the Tories have increased their lead over the Grits to 13.1%, and are 3% ahead in the GTA, which is also where my model has them.
While all previous polls have shown the Tories leading by at least 5% in BC, this one is the third one today to essentially show a tie in the province. In the end, this shift may be what costs Harper his majority.
In the projection, the NDP picks up two seats in BC, one from the Grits and one from the Tories:
LIB - 45
BQ - 13
The Tory average national lead decreases slightly, to 7.0%.
EKOS will have another update around 10pm tonight with data from today, so we still have at least three polls to come.