Thursday, December 16, 2010

EKOS: Tories Lead by 5.5, NDP Up

EKOS decided not to wait until next week to give us its last poll of the year, which may also be the last voting intention poll overall for 2010. There is not too much of note in this poll. Overall, the NDP and the Bloc were somewhat stronger than usual, and the two main parties a bit weaker, but these changes are not statistically significant, and there are no surprising regional numbers, except perhaps that the Liberals are just 20 points behind the Tories in Alberta.

Adding this poll to the average gives:

CON - 142 (36.4%)
LIB - 80 (29.0%)
BQ - 52 (10.0%)
NDP - 34 (16.1%)

The average Tory national lead is 7.5% (due to rounding) 7.4% (Harris-Decima has posted its latest poll report, which allowed me to get unpublished numbers from previous weeks), almost unchanged.

Given that this is most likely the last poll of the year, I will, over the next few days, post updated graphs and maps. But you can already imagine that these updates won't be too exciting: all parties are within 5 seats of their count in the last projection of 2009. Indeed, after all the ups and downs of 2010, the end changes are rather puny: the Tories lost 2, the Grits gained 4, the Bloc gained 3, and the Dippers lost 5.

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