Thursday, December 9, 2010

EKOS: Tories' Lead at 4.5, 5.2 a Week Ago

Unlike the three polls earlier this week showing the Conservatives at 35-38% and with a near 10-point lead, EKOS' latest numbers suggest that the situation has remained fairly stable, as they only spot the Tories a 5-point lead. According to EKOS, Ontario is still a tie, and the Liberals lead by a whopping 38 points in Atlantic Canada (as always, small sample alert), contrary to the other polls that have the Tories ahead in both regions. However, EKOS confirms the Conservative strength in BC.

Adding this poll to the mix moderates the Liberals' losses:

CON - 143 142
LIB - 79 80
BQ - 52
NDP - 34

On the face of it, the Liberals gained 3 seats from the NDP. Actually, only one seat was transferred in that way. In the East, the Liberals also had a net gain of 2 from the Tories, who took them from the NDP out West.

The average Tory national lead is 8.1%. However, because the regional breakdown for the first week of polling was not released, the above projections do not take that week into account. Also omitting it for the popular vote gap calculation would put the Tory lead at 8.4%.

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