Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 12

After two bad polls for the Liberals yesterday, we get today an even worse one from Angus Reid! Once again, the Tories lead in Atlantic Canada, but what's really great for the government is that they lead by 13% in Ontario. If this were borne out in an election, the Grits could fall as low as 60 seats nationally, and the Tories would have a good shot at a majority.

Adding this poll to the projection gets us back to almost exactly the 2008 seat count:

CON - 143
LIB - 76
BQ - 52
NDP - 37

The average Conservative national lead is now 8.7%. They won the 2008 election by 11.4%, but are able to reach the same seat count since their popular vote losses are from the West, where most Conservative seats are safe anyway. The small seat losses there are offset by gains in Atlantic Canada, which is very competitive between the two main parties and therefore has a disproportionate share of swing seats.

The most worrisome thing in all this for Ignatieff is that he didn't commit any major faux pas lately, and yet is back where he was last fall, after he foolishly announced he would defeat the government. The voters that the Liberals need to win an election may be harder to get back this time.

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