Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Harris-Decima: Tories Lead by Just 2

The latest poll from Harris-Decima, unlike other recent ones, have the Grits and Tories in a statistical dead heat. Ontario is tied in this survey, while the Tories have low numbers (relative to other polls) in BC, Alberta and Québec. The Bloc, at 44% in Québec, is strong, though this is often the case in Harris-Decima polls. The same goes for the Greens at 21% in BC. This is a fairly weak poll across the board for the NDP, except in Alberta, where 14% is quite good for the Dippers.

There has also been a Léger poll with weak Bloc and strong NDP numbers. Both Léger and CROP have been consistently delivering better results for the NDP in Québec than national pollsters. Any idea why?

Adding these polls to the formula yields little change:

CON - 142
LIB - 82
BQ - 52
NDP - 32

The average popular vote lead for the Conservatives drops to a still sizable 7.4%.

Unless infrequent pollsters like Environics and CROP come out with new numbers soon, there may only be no more than one voting intention poll left this year: hopefully EKOS will release bi-weekly numbers next week. Shortly after that release, I will update the projection graph and hopefully also the maps.

Update: I just noticed that I missed a CROP poll that came out two weeks ago. Incorporating it into the average does not change the projections. So indeed, virtually all pollsters have said their final word of the year on voting intentions!

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