Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Two Polls: Tories Lead by 6.9, 11

We have our first two non-EKOS polls in four weeks today (talk about a drought!), and the news is bad for the Liberals: Nanos has them trailing by 6.9%, while Abacus has them at a paltry 24%, 11% behind the Conservatives. The regional breakdown is just as disastrous for Ignatieff:
- there have now been four polls in a row showing the Tories leading in Atlantic Canada;
- the two new polls show the Tories ahead in Ontario by 7-8%, more than in the last election;
- the Tories stay strong in BC, while the Bloc shows no sign of dropping in Québec.

Not surprisingly, incorporating these polls into the aggregate projection increases the Conservatives' seat count:

CON - 139
LIB - 81
BQ - 51
NDP - 37

The Tories are now at their best position of 2010, and the Grits are almost entirely back down to the doldrums of last fall. No wonder many Liberals want a new leader! The NDP got decent numbers in today's polls, but lost seats because:
- the Liberals' weakness didn't benefit the Dippers, who were pretty much "maxed out" on that front; and
- the Conservatives' gains in popular support were larger than the NDP's.

The average national lead for the Tories jumps to 7.6%.

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