Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Nanos December Poll

Nanos released today its December voting intentions poll. This one was actually conducted around the same time as the EKOS and Angus polls reported in the last two posts, and the most recent day of polling included is still EKOS' December 15.

Nanos' poll has some interesting results: it shows the NDP first in Atlantic Canada (essentially tied with the Tories, and a few points ahead of the Grits, who should be worried there), the Liberals within 3 points of the Bloc in Québec and ahead of the Tories in Ontario, and the Conservatives with a very strong lead in BC (and of course in the Prairies too, though that's not "interesting").

This poll is a good one for the Liberals: while it has them still 9.3% behind the Tories, it's the first poll since the first week of September to show the Grits above 30% nationally (a few more polls in September, as well as Nanos' October, had them at 30%). More importantly, those gains have disproportionately (read: almost all) come from the electorally fertile Ontario and Québec. The Liberals therefore end the year on an upward trend in the aggregate projection, though still at a low level:

CON - 144
LIB - 76
BQ - 49
NDP - 39

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