Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Ipsos: Tories Up 10; Léger: Bloc Up 17 in Québec

Two new polls out today. First, the Ipsos poll (hat tip, as usual, to has the Tories leading by 10% nationally. The big news from this poll is the Conservative 46% in BC, compared to just 20% for the NDP and 19% for the Liberals - a far cry from last week's EKOS poll which had the NDP leading the Tories there! The Tories also did well in Ontario, where they lead the Liberals by 3%, and in MB/SK, where they got 59%. The Bloc had a strong 42% in Québec.

The Léger poll confirms the Bloc's strength, putting them at 38% against a worrisome 21% for the Liberals. The Tories are still weak (but steady) at 17%, while the NDP managed to tie them a strong performance.

Including this poll in my aggregate projection gives:

CON - 134
LIB - 82
BQ - 53
NDP - 39

The Bloc's 53 seats ties a mid-December high for the Bloc. As expected, the NDP pulled back a little, but is still very strong. The Liberal slide that started in mid-February continues: they haven't been this low since the Jan. 7 update. Conversely, the Tories are at their highest since that same Jan. 7 update - but they've been stuck in the low 130s for over a month now.

Tories lead my national poll average by 5.8%.

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