Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

EKOS: Tories lead by 5.3

The weekly EKOS poll is out, and shows little change nationally for the top two parties. However, the NDP now gets 17.6%, up 1.3% from last week: not as great a result as the 20% in this week's Harris-Decima poll, but still a very encouraging one. This is a bad poll for the Liberals: they trail the Tories marginally in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and have a measly 19.3% in Québec. For the Tories, this poll isn't great either: they trail the NDP marginally in BC (just like in the H-D poll), and only got 38.2% in MB/SK.

The aggregate projection is now:

CON - 130
LIB - 83
BQ - 54
NDP - 41

The Bloc's projection is a new high on this blog, and indeed matches their best-ever electoral results in 1993 and 2004. The Tories have been stuck in the 130-133 range for two months now, while this is the fifth consecutive projection where the Liberals get exactly 83.

The average Conservative national lead is 4.5%.

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