Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Three New Polls Included

Not much time today, but I've incorporated to my aggregate projection the following 3 polls published over the past few days: Ipsos, CROP and EKOS. The Québec projection finally moved, in favour of the Conservatives.

CON - 142
LIB - 85
BQ - 47
NDP - 34

This looks quite a bit like the current parliament, despite the fact that the Tory lead is now almost 5% smaller than in the 2008 election. The main reason is Ontario, where the Conservative has actually increased. Liberal gains elsewhere are for now strikingly inefficient.

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