Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Two Good Polls for the NDP

First, the weekly EKOS concurs with Environics in giving about 29% to the NDP in BC. Otherwise, there is little change from last week.

Second, a CROP Québec poll has the NDP at 16% in La Belle Province, while the Liberals are now 14 points behind the Bloc. The latter is consistent with the latest results from Rest-of-Canada pollsters, and is very bad news for the Liberals: last month, CROP and Léger had the Grits trail the Bloc by only 7 and 3 points, respectively. So the recent poor Québec results for the Liberals seem not to be due to Rest-of-Canada pollsters undercounting the Liberal vote in Québec, as they are believed to sometimes do.

The aggregate projection shows an uptick for the NDP. While the Conservatives have dropped, they remain close to a majority:

CON - 147
LIB - 75
BQ - 51
NDP - 35

This seat count has every party within 5 seats of their 2008 result.

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