Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

EKOS: Tories above 40%

More good news for the Tories here. I believe that this is the first poll since Dion's coalition-talk fiasco where the Tories are ahead of the Grits and Dippers combined. This has never happened at an actual election during my lifetime, and not so long ago it was the Liberals getting more than the PC and Reform/Alliance combined. Is this just a blip, or a sign of a durable shift in Canadian politics?

Compared to last week's EKOS, this poll shows the Conservatives increasing their lead everywhere except in Québec and BC. Based on this poll alone, the Tories would win a majority with a half-dozen-seat cushion, while the Liberals would win about 66 seats - Stockwell Day's performance in 2000 (and that was out of 301).

The aggregate projection does not quite put Ignatieff at Day levels yet - he remains on par with Stéphane Dion (what's with the initials S.D. anyway?):

CON - 150
LIB - 76
BQ - 49
NDP - 33

The NDP's national poll average may be below 15%, but its seat count remains respectable due to its number holding up in BC and to Liberal weakness in Ontario.

Will the Tories get the last 5 seats that separate it from a projected majority? Stay tuned!

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