Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

New Angus Reid Poll

Here's the most recent Angus Reid poll. It's mostly in line with recent polls, except in MB/SK where the Conservatives got a huge number, and take the last Liberal seat in Manitoba in the aggregate projection. Not a good poll for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Québec, and they lose a seat in each of these regions. The Grits are no longer projected to make any gains in Québec.

The aggregate projection is now:

CON - 149
LIB - 72
BQ - 52
NDP - 35

The Bloc is in a sweet spot where the Tories and Liberals almost evenly split the federalist vote. Québec poll averages are almost identical to the 2008 results, but I still have the Tories losing a couple of Quebec City seats because their numbers there, in polls with regional breakdowns, are consistently worse than what they got in 2008.

There has been a bit of a slingshot effect during this Liberal slide (and it is a Liberal slide rather than a Conservative uptick, since the BQ and NDP have gone up as well): first, Ontario moved while the rest of the country stayed put. Now, Ontario has been very stable for a while, and the rest of Canada caught up.

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