Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Three Polls

Now that Labour Day has passed, new polls are coming in at increased frequency. Since the last update, three were published: Nanos, Harris-Decima and EKOS. All three have the Tories leading the Liberals by between 3 and 4.1%, but the regional numbers differ significantly: Harris-Decima has a favourable breakdown for the Grits (5% lead in Ontario, and down only 5 to the Bloc in Québec), while EKOS has a bad one (down 1.9 in Ontario, and down 12 to the Bloc in Québec). The common denominator in these polls is a low NDP result: between 14.8% and 15%.

These results mean that my projection went up significantly for the Conservatives, down a lot for the NDP, and down a little for the Liberals. Note that the Prairies and Atlantic breakdowns are not yet available from Harris-Decima, so these numbers may be updated later today, but I don't expect major changes:

CON - 127
LIB - 101
BQ - 48
NDP - 32

This is the best projection for the Tories since this site was launched on July 21, and in fact we're back to almost exactly the same numbers as back then. Basically, the Conservatives' slow slide over the second half of the summer was reversed by election talk over the past 10 days.

No comments: