Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 14 in Ontario

This Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives leading 44-30 in Ontario. But the Liberals lead 57-22 in Atlantic Canada! The latter is obviously a sampling quirk, but the former reinforces the previous Angus Reid poll that showed the Tories up by 12 in Ontario. Also compared to the previous Angus Reid poll, the Tories jumped from 13% to 21% in Québec, while the NDP jumped from 6% to 17% in Alberta. The latest EKOS had also picked up a Tory uptick (albeit much smaller) in Québec, but actually had the NDP dropping in Alberta...

This poll alone puts Harper a half-dozen seats away from a majority, while the new aggregate projection shows:

CON - 138
LIB - 88
BQ - 48
NDP - 34

The Liberals are still the only party that would gain seats, but now only a handful of them.

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