Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Strategic Counsel: Tories Lead in Ontario, Bloc Strong

Here is the poll.

This poll is bad news for the NDP: terrible Québec (6%) and Ontario (11%) numbers, and not so great out West either (22% vs. 24% for the Liberals). The Grits can't be happy with being at 23% in Québec, and behind the Tories in Ontario (39% vs. 41%) either.

For the Conservatives, this poll is a mixed bag: they're still weak in Québec, but have their first lead in Ontario since early July in a non-Ipsos poll. However, 43% out West is actually very low for them.

The Strategic Counsel consistently overpolls the Bloc, and I'd be very surprised if their support were anywhere near 49%.

The updated projection is:

CON - 121
LIB - 103
BQ - 47
NDP - 37

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