Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

EKOS: Exact Tie!


Good news for the Liberals: for the first time in 5 weeks of EKOS polling, they have polled even with the Tories. Furthermore, they hold a 7.3% Ontario lead, and are only 1.4% behind the Bloc in Québec. However, this is a disappointing poll for them in MB, SK and BC, and their high number in AB probably doesn't help much seatwise.

Conversely, this is the lowest that the Tories have been in an EKOS in Ontario since late June, but the first time in 4 weeks that they're above 35% in BC.

Also, the Bloc's 32.3% in Québec is their worst non-CROP poll of the summer - and if's list of polls is complete, their worst non-CROP since January!

Nothing surprising on the NDP or the Greens' side.

Given these regional figures, this poll implies something close to a tie, and pulls my aggregate projection even tighter:

CON - 121
LIB - 104
BQ - 46
NDP - 37

It'll be interesting to see next week's EKOS, now that the Liberals have announced that they will start voting against the Conservatives on confidence issues.

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