Monday, September 13, 2010

Ipsos Reid: Conservatives by 3

The latest Ipsos Reid poll is out and shows almost no national movement since the last one a month ago. Both the actual numbers and the lack of national movement confirm Harris-Decima's latest finding.

Nevertheless, this poll is very significant: it gives the Grits an 8-point lead in Ontario, and confirms Nanos' and EKOS' finding that the Liberals have opened up a sizable lead in that crucial battleground. The Tories recoup that lost territory in MB/SK and BC, but those gains help little in terms of seats.

The shift in Ontario gives 6 extra seats to the Grits, at the expense of both the Tories and the Dippers:

CON - 124
LIB - 97
BQ - 53
NDP - 34

If upcoming polls keep showing a 7-to-8-point Liberal lead in Ontario, their gains in the projection would increase. However, they would remain roughly 15 seats short of the Tories. At that point, a rebound in Québec becomes crucial if the Grits want to tie up the seat count without having to win Ontario by 12+ points.

The average Tory national lead is down to 2.3%, mostly on the full depreciation of Léger's rogue poll from early August showing a 9-point Conservative lead.

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