Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Harris-Decima: Tories Still Lead by 3

Harris-Decima has released the results of a new poll to The Canadian Press, but the regional breakdown isn't yet available. The national figures held steady from two weeks ago for all parties but the Bloc, who are up one.

This post will be replaced, and a new projection made, when the details of the poll are made public.

Update: Still no full breakdown, but this article has the Québec numbers. The Grits are down 5, and just like EKOS and Nanos suggest, the Bloc is up. This will move one seat from the Grits to the Bloc in the projection - however, a drop in Québec likely means an increase elsewhere for the Liberals, so I won't update the projection until more details come out. The new projection will show an average Tory national lead of 2.8%.

Hopefully Harris-Decima gets around to posting the numbers if not tonight, then tomorrow...

Update 2: Harris-Decima has posted a press release, but it only contains the gender breakdown. (Not cool!) Hopefully another release is forthcoming, or we may only find out about the regional numbers by looking at the graphs of the next poll's report...

Update 3: Here's what I decided to do about this poll, since it looks like complete regional data will not be released. I project the Tory-Liberal popular vote gap and the Québec seat count as usual, which here means putting weight on this poll and the August 12-22 one. For the other provinces, I will project as if this poll didn't exist, which puts weight on the August 12-22 and the July 29-August 9 polls. However, I make a uniform adjustment to the non-Québec regional numbers of the older poll to make them consistent with the new national numbers. This gives:

CON - 128
LIB - 91
BQ - 53
NDP - 36

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